How many XJS left?

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AlecR
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How many XJS left?

Postby AlecR » Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:59 pm

Hi All,
I've written the short article below using the DfT/DVLA tables on licensed cars by model. I was hoping it might be interesting to you. Feel free to comment.
Alec

How many XJ-S and XJS cars are left on British roads?
by Alec Ross, 21 March 2017

About 115,000 XJ-S and XJS cars were produced between 1975 and 1996. I wanted to know how rare my 1995 4.0 Celebration was so I turned to the Department for Transport. They publish some great data on vehicle licensing by make and model on their website. I’ve produced some charts showing the number of XJS cars licensed in the UK and compared them to the number produced.

Chart 1 shows production numbers by year. You can see the increases in production following the launch of the XJ-S HE in 1981 and the second XJS ‘big bumpers’ facelift in 1993.
Chart 1 XJS cars produced by year.png
So how many are left now? We can see the decline in licensed XJS cars over time (see Chart 2). The first year we have figures for is 1994: there were 18,839 licensed XJS cars at the end of 1994 in Great Britain. Despite production continuing up to 1996 the number of licensed cars declined in 1995 and 1996: more XJS cars were de-licensed than licensed. The number of XJS cars licensed declined steadily by about 1,100 a year from 1996 to 2008. From 2009 the decline slowed down and nearly levelled off in 2014: now about 3,200 cars are licensed annually.
Chart 2 XJS cars licensed by 31 December in each year from 1994 to 2015.png
Only three per cent of XJS cars ever produced were still licensed in the UK at the end of 2015. The other 97 per cent could be scrapped, exported, SORNed or stored. We can look at how many are still licensed by year of production (see Chart 3).
Chart 3 Proportion of XJS cars licensed 31 December 2015 by year of production.png
Unsurprisingly, very few XJS models from the 1970s were still on the road: the statistics suggest only 75 were licensed; only 0.3 per cent of the number produced. Many more XJS cars from the last few years of production were still in use: about five per cent of XJS models produced from 1989 to 1996 were still licensed at the end of 2015.

The statistics relate to licensed vehicles and so exclude cars with Statutory Off Road Notifications. The rolling 40 year exemption from Vehicle Excise Duty for Historic (classic) vehicles meant that XJS cars manufactured from 1 Jan 1975 to 31 Dec 1975 were exempt from paying Vehicle Tax from 1 April 2016. From 1 April 2017, XJS cars manufactured in 1976 will be exempt too. They must still be licensed to be driven on the road so I expect them to be included in the statistics.

It would be good to look at differences between hard top and convertible, or by engine size, but the model descriptions are not very clear. The DVLA list multiple XJS models with slightly differing descriptions. I selected Make=”JAGUAR”, Gen Model=”XJS” and Models that contained “XJ-S” or “XJS”.

What next? The Department for Transport tables are updated annually in April. So, we’ll have figures for the 2016 calendar year when they are published in April 2017.


References

Department for Transports statistics are published via the vehicle licensing statistics home page: https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... statistics

Department for Transport (2016) Table VEH0124: Licensed cars by make and model, by year of first registration, United Kingdom, annually (as at 31st December): 2015. Also Table VEH0120: Licensed cars by make and model, Great Britain, annually from 1994, quarterly from 2008 Q3; also United Kingdom from 2014 Q4. Downloaded 17 October 2016 from
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... cles-veh01

In order to work out what proportion of XJS cars were still registered I used the annual production figures from the webpage titled “The cars : Jaguar XJ-S development history” at AROnline.

AROnline (2016) The cars : Jaguar XJ-S development history. Used for production figures. Downloaded 17 October 2016 from http://www.aronline.co.uk/blogs/cars/ja ... guar-xj-s/
Last edited by AlecR on Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
XJ8 Metallic Green 2002 3.2 litre Executive
Gone but not forgotten: XJS Signal Red 1995 4.0 litre Celebration

davidr

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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby davidr » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:51 pm

Thanks Alec - that's very interesting. Our cars are getting quite thin on the ground it seams! Probably explains why prices are on the up
Regards
David
XJS FORUM COORDINATOR
1996 XJS Celebration Conv. (shown on the JEC stand at NEC Nov 2015)
2001 XKR Convertible

Previously enjoyed!
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J44EAG

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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby J44EAG » Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:54 pm

Superb research and analysis, Alec.

It make fascinating reading.

Thank you for sharing.

Mike K
X350 Co-ordinator

2004 XJR

davidr

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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby davidr » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:05 am

Alec - just a thought. Would the remaining licensed figures from DVLA be just those that are taxed or would it include those on SORN as well?

AlecR
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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby AlecR » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:27 am

Hi David,

The statistics relate to licensed vehicles and so exclude cars with Statutory Off Road Notifications. The rolling 40 year exemption from Vehicle Excise Duty for Historic (classic) vehicles meant that XJS cars manufactured from 1 Jan 1975 to 31 Dec 1975 were exempt from paying Vehicle Tax from 1 April 2016. From 1 April 2017, XJS cars manufactured in 1976 will be exempt. They must still be licensed to be driven on the road so I expect them to be included in the statistics.

I've edited the original post to clarify.

A
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Gone but not forgotten: XJS Signal Red 1995 4.0 litre Celebration

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poprivet

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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby poprivet » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:28 am

I imagine there are many that are SORN over the winter or long term SORN due to restoration/repair.
This is where statistics fail, however thanks for the insight.
1988 3.6 XJ-S coupe
'Remember that the value of your investment can plummet as well as fall'

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Tintin
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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby Tintin » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:10 pm

Brilliant research Alec - well done! We were discussing statistical data/the vehicle register at the Haynes gathering only last week - I think this is just the sort of data that the club should be collating for all the earlier models - it is interesting to owners, organisations, and suppliers alike.

Robbie
1996 4 litre XJS Celebration 2+2
Daimler Sovereign S1 4.2 1971

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BigCatXJS

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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby BigCatXJS » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:09 pm

I imagine there are many that are SORN over the winter or long term SORN due to restoration/repair.
This is where statistics fail, however thanks for the insight.
Yes - mine is one of them. However, I would be surprised if this populous outnumbers those that are not sorn. I known a number of folks who lay-up during the winter but keep the tax up-to-date just in case there is a requirement to use the car.

I'd be willing to wager that there are less than 6,000 XJS (all types) left in the UK. North America? - now that would be interesting to know...

Cheers, Rich
1989 Jaguar XJ-S V12 HE 5-speed manual
1994 Jaguar XJ40 Sovereign
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DrSebWilkes
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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby DrSebWilkes » Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:02 pm

On "How many left" (https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/), it's awfully confusing and I suspect there are some crossovers BUT

It does include how many of each vehicle type are SORN ...


With this, I'd estimate the number to be around 6000-7000 XJSs left

EDIT: Compare this to the numbers of ...

Rover SD1s ... Austin Princesses' ...

Interesting isn't it that the sum of ALL those two is about 1/3 of just our licensed XJSs!!!
I'm Seb Wilkes, 17, with a 92 XJS. Links: My YouTube channel & XJS webpage, JaguarXJS.net Feel free to have a look :lol: :D 8)

Dickdudley
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Re: How many XJS left?

Postby Dickdudley » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:47 pm

Interesting... although the Austin Princess was never well reviewed I do remember the SD1 drifting gracefully around roundabouts in my youth!

Looks like we have similar aged cars Seb, but looking at the work you have in front of you I'm hoping mine will not be as difficult! Good luck.
Richard Dudley-Smith

XJS facelift J681MCV and hoping it's not going to be a money pit...


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